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Grêmio Maringá vs Nacional PR — Paranaense - 2 2020

Grêmio Maringá
Grêmio Maringá
FT
0 – 8
HT: 0 – 3
Nacional PR
Nacional PR
L. Zarelli 89'
Nathan Junior 86', 9'
Guilherme 76'
Pedro Lucas 59'
L. Paulo 56'
Nicholas 44'
F. Davison 38'
6/10/2024Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Regional Willie Davids

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Grêmio Maringá23%
×Draw21%
Nacional PR56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grêmio Maringá
1.26
Nacional PR
2.06

Nacional PR creates 63% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 26 away

creates per match

Grêmio Maringá
0.75
Nacional PR
1.12

allows per match

Grêmio Maringá
3.00
Nacional PR
1.77

finishing

Grêmio Maringá+0.00on par
Nacional PR+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grêmio Maringá ↓

Nacional PR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Grêmio Maringá or draw
44%
Grêmio Maringá or Nacional PR
79%
Draw or Nacional PR
77%

Winning margin

Grêmio Maringá wins by 2+
9%
Nacional PR wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Grêmio Maringá 1+ goals
72%
Grêmio Maringá 2+ goals
36%
Grêmio Maringá 3+ goals
13%
Nacional PR 1+ goals
87%
Nacional PR 2+ goals
61%
Nacional PR 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Grêmio Maringá (draw refunded)
29%
Nacional PR (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grêmio Maringá at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

Nacional PR away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grêmio Maringá attack 0.75 + Nacional PR defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.26

Nacional PR attack 1.12 + Grêmio Maringá defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Grêmio Maringá scores more
23%
level
21%
Nacional PR scores more
56%

Nacional PR at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Nacional PR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Nathan Junior
38'
F. Davison
44'
Nicholas
56'
L. Paulo
59'
Pedro Lucas
76'
Guilherme
86'
Nathan Junior
89'
L. Zarelli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: Grêmio Maringá 0–8 Nacional PR

Nacional PR beat Grêmio Maringá 8-0 in Paranaense - 2 on June 10, 2024.

Goals: Nathan Junior (9', 86'), F. Davison (38'), Nicholas (44'), L. Paulo (56'), Pedro Lucas (59'), Guilherme (76'), L. Zarelli (89').

The match was played at Estádio Regional Willie Davids in Maringá, Paraná.