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Grêmio Maringá vs Laranja Mecânica — Paranaense - 2 2020

Grêmio Maringá
Grêmio Maringá
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Laranja Mecânica
Laranja Mecânica
F. Alves 90+6'
Maxwell 45+5' (pen)
5/6/2023Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Regional Willie Davids

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Grêmio Maringá18%
×Draw22%
Laranja Mecânica60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grêmio Maringá
0.92
Laranja Mecânica
1.88

Laranja Mecânica creates 104% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 24 away

creates per match

Grêmio Maringá
0.75
Laranja Mecânica
0.75

allows per match

Grêmio Maringá
3.00
Laranja Mecânica
1.08

finishing

Grêmio Maringá+0.00on par
Laranja Mecânica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grêmio Maringá ↓

Laranja Mecânica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Grêmio Maringá or draw
40%
Grêmio Maringá or Laranja Mecânica
78%
Draw or Laranja Mecânica
82%

Winning margin

Grêmio Maringá wins by 2+
6%
Laranja Mecânica wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Grêmio Maringá 1+ goals
60%
Grêmio Maringá 2+ goals
23%
Grêmio Maringá 3+ goals
7%
Laranja Mecânica 1+ goals
85%
Laranja Mecânica 2+ goals
56%
Laranja Mecânica 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Grêmio Maringá (draw refunded)
23%
Laranja Mecânica (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grêmio Maringá at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

Laranja Mecânica away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grêmio Maringá attack 0.75 + Laranja Mecânica defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.92

Laranja Mecânica attack 0.75 + Grêmio Maringá defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Grêmio Maringá scores more
18%
level
22%
Laranja Mecânica scores more
60%

Laranja Mecânica at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Laranja Mecânica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+5'
MaxwellPenalty
87'
90+6'
F. Alves

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grêmio Maringá 2 – 0 Laranja Mecânica

Grêmio Maringá beat Laranja Mecânica 2-0 in Paranaense - 2 on May 6, 2023.

Goals: Maxwell (45+5' pen), F. Alves (90+6').

The match was played at Estádio Regional Willie Davids in Maringá, Paraná.