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Gremio Maringa U20 vs Independente FSJ U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Gremio Maringa U20
Gremio Maringa U20
FT
0 – 16
Independente FSJ U20
Independente FSJ U20
5/25/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 13Estádio Municipal Valdemar Bravin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gremio Maringa U202%
×Draw5%
Independente FSJ U2093%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio Maringa U20
0.83
Independente FSJ U20
4.83

Independente FSJ U20 creates 482% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Gremio Maringa U20
0.17
Independente FSJ U20
4.00

allows per match

Gremio Maringa U20
5.67
Independente FSJ U20
1.50

finishing

Gremio Maringa U20+0.00on par
Independente FSJ U20+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Maringa U20 ↓

Independente FSJ U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–25%
0–38%
0–410%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (10%) · grid covers 60% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Gremio Maringa U20 or draw
7%
Gremio Maringa U20 or Independente FSJ U20
95%
Draw or Independente FSJ U20
98%

Winning margin

Gremio Maringa U20 wins by 2+
1%
Independente FSJ U20 wins by 2+
82%

Team goals

Gremio Maringa U20 1+ goals
56%
Gremio Maringa U20 2+ goals
20%
Gremio Maringa U20 3+ goals
5%
Independente FSJ U20 1+ goals
99%
Independente FSJ U20 2+ goals
94%
Independente FSJ U20 3+ goals
82%

Draw no bet

Gremio Maringa U20 (draw refunded)
3%
Independente FSJ U20 (draw refunded)
97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Maringa U20 at home — creates 0.17, concedes 5.67 · 6 matches

Independente FSJ U20 away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Maringa U20 attack 0.17 + Independente FSJ U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.83

Independente FSJ U20 attack 4.00 + Gremio Maringa U20 defence 5.67 → ÷2 → 4.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

Gremio Maringa U20 scores more
2%
level
5%
Independente FSJ U20 scores more
93%

Independente FSJ U20 at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "Independente FSJ U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense U20: Gremio Maringa U20 0–16 Independente FSJ U20

Independente FSJ U20 beat Gremio Maringa U20 16-0 in Paranaense U20 on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Valdemar Bravin in Maringá, Paraná.