Gremio Maringa U20 0–0 Cianorte U20: Result & Stats

Gremio Maringa U20

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cianorte U20

3/9/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 2Estádio Municipal José Chiappin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gremio Maringa U2010%

×Draw12%

Cianorte U2078%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gremio Maringa U20Expected goals in this matchCianorte U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

3.71

Gremio Maringa U20

1.33

Cianorte U20

3.71

Cianorte U20 creates 179% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

0.17

creates per match

1.75

5.67

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Gremio Maringa U20

0.17

Cianorte U20

1.75

allows per match

Gremio Maringa U20

5.67

Cianorte U20

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio Maringa U20+0.00on par

Cianorte U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Maringa U20 ↓

Cianorte U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–36%

0–46%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–45%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Gremio Maringa U20 or draw

22%

Gremio Maringa U20 or Cianorte U20

88%

Draw or Cianorte U20

90%

Winning margin

Gremio Maringa U20 wins by 2+

4%

Cianorte U20 wins by 2+

61%

Team goals

Gremio Maringa U20 1+ goals

74%

Gremio Maringa U20 2+ goals

38%

Gremio Maringa U20 3+ goals

15%

Cianorte U20 1+ goals

97%

Cianorte U20 2+ goals

87%

Cianorte U20 3+ goals

69%

Draw no bet

Gremio Maringa U20 (draw refunded)

11%

Cianorte U20 (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Maringa U20 at home — creates 0.17, concedes 5.67 · 6 matches

Cianorte U20 away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Maringa U20 attack 0.17 + Cianorte U20 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Cianorte U20 attack 1.75 + Gremio Maringa U20 defence 5.67 → ÷2 → 3.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Gremio Maringa U20 scores more

10%

level

12%

Cianorte U20 scores more

78%

Cianorte U20 at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Cianorte U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff