Gremio Maringa U20 0–8 Araucaria U20

Gremio Maringa U20

FT

0 – 8

Araucaria U20

5/11/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 11Estádio Municipal Valdemar Bravin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gremio Maringa U207%

×Draw11%

Araucaria U2083%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gremio Maringa U20Expected goals in this matchAraucaria U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

3.46

Gremio Maringa U20

0.94

Araucaria U20

3.46

Araucaria U20 creates 268% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

0.17

creates per match

1.24

5.67

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Gremio Maringa U20

0.17

Araucaria U20

1.24

allows per match

Gremio Maringa U20

5.67

Araucaria U20

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio Maringa U20+0.00on par

Araucaria U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Maringa U20 ↓

Araucaria U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–15%

0–28%

0–39%

0–48%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Gremio Maringa U20 or draw

17%

Gremio Maringa U20 or Araucaria U20

89%

Draw or Araucaria U20

93%

Winning margin

Gremio Maringa U20 wins by 2+

2%

Araucaria U20 wins by 2+

66%

Team goals

Gremio Maringa U20 1+ goals

61%

Gremio Maringa U20 2+ goals

24%

Gremio Maringa U20 3+ goals

7%

Araucaria U20 1+ goals

97%

Araucaria U20 2+ goals

85%

Araucaria U20 3+ goals

65%

Draw no bet

Gremio Maringa U20 (draw refunded)

7%

Araucaria U20 (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Maringa U20 at home — creates 0.17, concedes 5.67 · 6 matches

Araucaria U20 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Maringa U20 attack 0.17 + Araucaria U20 defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 0.94

Araucaria U20 attack 1.24 + Gremio Maringa U20 defence 5.67 → ÷2 → 3.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Gremio Maringa U20 scores more

7%

level

11%

Araucaria U20 scores more

83%

Araucaria U20 at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Araucaria U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff