Grêmio Catanduvense 0–6 Mogi Mirim: Result & Stats

Grêmio Catanduvense

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 1

Mogi Mirim

J. Batista 90'

M. Monteiro 84'

Chrigor 76'

Bruno Santos 72'

Stefanelo 46'

V. Nobre 45'

6/7/2026

Paulista Série B · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Grêmio Catanduvense7%

×Draw10%

Mogi Mirim83%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grêmio CatanduvenseExpected goals in this matchMogi Mirim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

3.80

Grêmio Catanduvense

1.10

Mogi Mirim

3.80

Mogi Mirim creates 245% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

0.40

creates per match

1.60

6.00

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Grêmio Catanduvense

0.40

Mogi Mirim

1.60

allows per match

Grêmio Catanduvense

6.00

Mogi Mirim

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grêmio Catanduvense+0.00on par

Mogi Mirim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grêmio Catanduvense ↓

Mogi Mirim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–26%

0–37%

0–47%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–27%

1–38%

1–48%

2

2–00%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Grêmio Catanduvense or draw

17%

Grêmio Catanduvense or Mogi Mirim

90%

Draw or Mogi Mirim

93%

Winning margin

Grêmio Catanduvense wins by 2+

2%

Mogi Mirim wins by 2+

67%

Team goals

Grêmio Catanduvense 1+ goals

67%

Grêmio Catanduvense 2+ goals

30%

Grêmio Catanduvense 3+ goals

10%

Mogi Mirim 1+ goals

98%

Mogi Mirim 2+ goals

88%

Mogi Mirim 3+ goals

70%

Draw no bet

Grêmio Catanduvense (draw refunded)

8%

Mogi Mirim (draw refunded)

92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grêmio Catanduvense at home — creates 0.40, concedes 6.00 · 5 matches

Mogi Mirim away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grêmio Catanduvense attack 0.40 + Mogi Mirim defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.10

Mogi Mirim attack 1.60 + Grêmio Catanduvense defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 3.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Grêmio Catanduvense scores more

7%

level

10%

Mogi Mirim scores more

83%

Mogi Mirim at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Mogi Mirim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

46'

72'

76'

84'

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff