Grêmio Anápolis 1–1 Iporá: Result & Stats

Grêmio Anápolis

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Iporá

João Celeri 90+4'

Iago Martins 45+1'

2/9/2023

League #628 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Municipal Jonas Duarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Grêmio Anápolis45%

×Draw24%

Iporá31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grêmio AnápolisExpected goals in this matchIporá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.33

Grêmio Anápolis

1.67

Iporá

1.33

Grêmio Anápolis creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

1.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Grêmio Anápolis

1.67

Iporá

1.33

allows per match

Grêmio Anápolis

1.33

Iporá

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grêmio Anápolis+0.00on par

Iporá+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grêmio Anápolis ↓

Iporá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Grêmio Anápolis or draw

69%

Grêmio Anápolis or Iporá

76%

Draw or Iporá

55%

Winning margin

Grêmio Anápolis wins by 2+

24%

Iporá wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Grêmio Anápolis 1+ goals

81%

Grêmio Anápolis 2+ goals

50%

Grêmio Anápolis 3+ goals

23%

Iporá 1+ goals

74%

Iporá 2+ goals

38%

Iporá 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Grêmio Anápolis (draw refunded)

60%

Iporá (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grêmio Anápolis at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Iporá away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grêmio Anápolis attack 1.67 + Iporá defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Iporá attack 1.33 + Grêmio Anápolis defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Grêmio Anápolis scores more

45%

level

24%

Iporá scores more

31%

Grêmio Anápolis at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Grêmio Anápolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

23'

Davi← Talis

28'

30'

Cristhyan← Willian Daltro

38'

Victor Ferreira← Marcos Antônio

45+1'

Iago Martins

58'

Danillo Bala← Andrei Cassemiro

60'

Bruno Bahia

62'

Murillo Lima← Lucas Lima

62'

Auecione Filho← Marquinho

70'

75'

Klaidher← Carlos Henrique

81'

84'

90+4'

João Celeri

Grêmio

Iporá

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Glauber Ramos

30'▲Cristhyan←▼Willian Daltro

38'▲Victor Ferreira←▼Marcos Antônio

62'▲Murillo Lima←▼Lucas Lima

75'▲Klaidher←▼Carlos Henrique

Grêmio Anápolis substitutes

CristhyanFerreiraLimaKlaidherÂngeloD'ÁvilaDavidTrindadeFlávioMineiroViniciusPereira

Manager: Edson Miolo

23'▲Davi←▼Talis

58'▲Danillo Bala←▼Andrei Cassemiro

62'▲Auecione Filho←▼Marquinho

Iporá substitutes

DaviBalaFilhoFelipeTiagoJúniorCarlosFilipinhoBahiaXavier