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Gremio Anapolis U20 vs Vila Nova U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Gremio Anapolis U20
Gremio Anapolis U20advanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vila Nova U20
Vila Nova U20
L. Amaral 78'
M. Benevides Goncalves 52'
Unknown 80'
5/9/2025Goiano U20Goiano U20 · Quarter-finalsEstádio Municipal Jonas Duarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gremio Anapolis U2039%
×Draw24%
Vila Nova U2037%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio Anapolis U20
1.54
Vila Nova U20
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

creates per match

Gremio Anapolis U20
1.71
Vila Nova U20
1.86

allows per match

Gremio Anapolis U20
1.14
Vila Nova U20
1.36

finishing

Gremio Anapolis U20+0.00on par
Vila Nova U20+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Anapolis U20 ↓

Vila Nova U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Gremio Anapolis U20 or draw
63%
Gremio Anapolis U20 or Vila Nova U20
76%
Draw or Vila Nova U20
61%

Winning margin

Gremio Anapolis U20 wins by 2+
19%
Vila Nova U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Gremio Anapolis U20 1+ goals
79%
Gremio Anapolis U20 2+ goals
45%
Gremio Anapolis U20 3+ goals
20%
Vila Nova U20 1+ goals
78%
Vila Nova U20 2+ goals
44%
Vila Nova U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Gremio Anapolis U20 (draw refunded)
51%
Vila Nova U20 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Anapolis U20 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Vila Nova U20 away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Anapolis U20 attack 1.71 + Vila Nova U20 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.54

Vila Nova U20 attack 1.86 + Gremio Anapolis U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gremio Anapolis U20 scores more
39%
level
24%
Vila Nova U20 scores more
37%

Gremio Anapolis U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gremio Anapolis U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
M. Benevides Goncalves
78'
L. Amaral
80'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Goiano U20: Gremio Anapolis U20 2–1 Vila Nova U20

Gremio Anapolis U20 beat Vila Nova U20 2-1 in Goiano U20 on May 9, 2025.

Goals: M. Benevides Goncalves (52'), L. Amaral (78'), ? (80').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Jonas Duarte in Anápolis, Goiás.