Gremio Anapolis U20 1–2 Trindade U20

Gremio Anapolis U20

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Trindade U20

Unknown 88'

Unknown 80', 56'

3/28/2025

Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 6CT Grêmio Esportivo Anápolis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gremio Anapolis U2037%

×Draw25%

Trindade U2037%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gremio Anapolis U20Expected goals in this matchTrindade U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.39

Gremio Anapolis U20

1.38

Trindade U20

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

1.71

creates per match

1.64

1.14

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Gremio Anapolis U20

1.71

Trindade U20

1.64

allows per match

Gremio Anapolis U20

1.14

Trindade U20

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio Anapolis U20+0.00on par

Trindade U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Anapolis U20 ↓

Trindade U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gremio Anapolis U20 or draw

63%

Gremio Anapolis U20 or Trindade U20

75%

Draw or Trindade U20

63%

Winning margin

Gremio Anapolis U20 wins by 2+

17%

Trindade U20 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Gremio Anapolis U20 1+ goals

75%

Gremio Anapolis U20 2+ goals

40%

Gremio Anapolis U20 3+ goals

16%

Trindade U20 1+ goals

75%

Trindade U20 2+ goals

40%

Trindade U20 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Gremio Anapolis U20 (draw refunded)

50%

Trindade U20 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Anapolis U20 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Trindade U20 away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Anapolis U20 attack 1.71 + Trindade U20 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.38

Trindade U20 attack 1.64 + Gremio Anapolis U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gremio Anapolis U20 scores more

37%

level

25%

Trindade U20 scores more

37%

Gremio Anapolis U20 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gremio Anapolis U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

56'

76'

80'

88'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff