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Gremio Anapolis U20 vs Jataiense U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Gremio Anapolis U20
Gremio Anapolis U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jataiense U20
Jataiense U20
2/22/2025Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 1CT Grêmio Esportivo Anápolis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gremio Anapolis U2063%
×Draw20%
Jataiense U2018%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio Anapolis U20
2.19
Jataiense U20
1.07

Gremio Anapolis U20 creates 105% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Gremio Anapolis U20
1.71
Jataiense U20
1.00

allows per match

Gremio Anapolis U20
1.14
Jataiense U20
2.67

finishing

Gremio Anapolis U20+0.00on par
Jataiense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Anapolis U20 ↓

Jataiense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Gremio Anapolis U20 or draw
82%
Gremio Anapolis U20 or Jataiense U20
80%
Draw or Jataiense U20
37%

Winning margin

Gremio Anapolis U20 wins by 2+
39%
Jataiense U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gremio Anapolis U20 1+ goals
89%
Gremio Anapolis U20 2+ goals
64%
Gremio Anapolis U20 3+ goals
37%
Jataiense U20 1+ goals
66%
Jataiense U20 2+ goals
29%
Jataiense U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gremio Anapolis U20 (draw refunded)
78%
Jataiense U20 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Anapolis U20 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Jataiense U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Anapolis U20 attack 1.71 + Jataiense U20 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.19

Jataiense U20 attack 1.00 + Gremio Anapolis U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Gremio Anapolis U20 scores more
63%
level
20%
Jataiense U20 scores more
18%

Gremio Anapolis U20 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Gremio Anapolis U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Goiano U20: Gremio Anapolis U20 2–1 Jataiense U20

Gremio Anapolis U20 beat Jataiense U20 2-1 in Goiano U20 on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at CT Grêmio Esportivo Anápolis in Anápolis, Goiás.