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Gremio Anapolis U20 vs Itauçu U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Gremio Anapolis U20
Gremio Anapolis U20
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Itauçu U20
Itauçu U20
4/12/2025Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 8CT Grêmio Esportivo Anápolis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Gremio Anapolis U2063%
×Draw19%
Itauçu U2018%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio Anapolis U20
2.35
Itauçu U20
1.17

Gremio Anapolis U20 creates 101% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Gremio Anapolis U20
1.71
Itauçu U20
1.20

allows per match

Gremio Anapolis U20
1.14
Itauçu U20
3.00

finishing

Gremio Anapolis U20+0.00on par
Itauçu U20+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Anapolis U20 ↓

Itauçu U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Gremio Anapolis U20 or draw
82%
Gremio Anapolis U20 or Itauçu U20
81%
Draw or Itauçu U20
37%

Winning margin

Gremio Anapolis U20 wins by 2+
41%
Itauçu U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gremio Anapolis U20 1+ goals
90%
Gremio Anapolis U20 2+ goals
68%
Gremio Anapolis U20 3+ goals
41%
Itauçu U20 1+ goals
69%
Itauçu U20 2+ goals
33%
Itauçu U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gremio Anapolis U20 (draw refunded)
78%
Itauçu U20 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Anapolis U20 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Itauçu U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Anapolis U20 attack 1.71 + Itauçu U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

Itauçu U20 attack 1.20 + Gremio Anapolis U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Gremio Anapolis U20 scores more
63%
level
19%
Itauçu U20 scores more
18%

Gremio Anapolis U20 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Gremio Anapolis U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gremio Anapolis U20 vs Itauçu U20

Gremio Anapolis U20 beat Itauçu U20 4-1 in Goiano U20 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at CT Grêmio Esportivo Anápolis in Anápolis, Goiás.