Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gremio 2 vs Passo Fundo — Copa Gaúcha 2024

Gremio 2
Gremio 2
FT
1 – 0
Passo Fundo
Passo Fundo
8/29/2024Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Airton Ferreira da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gremio 249%
×Draw25%
Passo Fundo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio 2
1.63
Passo Fundo
1.13

Gremio 2 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Gremio 2
1.25
Passo Fundo
1.00

allows per match

Gremio 2
1.25
Passo Fundo
2.00

finishing

Gremio 2+0.00on par
Passo Fundo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio 2 ↓

Passo Fundo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Gremio 2 or draw
74%
Gremio 2 or Passo Fundo
75%
Draw or Passo Fundo
51%

Winning margin

Gremio 2 wins by 2+
26%
Passo Fundo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gremio 2 1+ goals
80%
Gremio 2 2+ goals
48%
Gremio 2 3+ goals
22%
Passo Fundo 1+ goals
68%
Passo Fundo 2+ goals
31%
Passo Fundo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gremio 2 (draw refunded)
65%
Passo Fundo (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio 2 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Passo Fundo away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio 2 attack 1.25 + Passo Fundo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Passo Fundo attack 1.00 + Gremio 2 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gremio 2 scores more
49%
level
25%
Passo Fundo scores more
26%

Gremio 2 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gremio 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Gaúcha: Gremio 2 1–0 Passo Fundo

Gremio 2 beat Passo Fundo 1-0 in Copa Gaúcha on August 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Airton Ferreira da Silva in Eldoraldo do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul.