Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gremio 2 vs Juventude II — Copa Gaúcha 2024

Gremio 2
Gremio 2
FT
0 – 1
Juventude II
Juventude II
9/11/2024Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Airton Ferreira da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gremio 253%
×Draw24%
Juventude II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio 2
1.67
Juventude II
0.99

Gremio 2 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

Gremio 2
1.25
Juventude II
0.73

allows per match

Gremio 2
1.25
Juventude II
2.09

finishing

Gremio 2+0.00on par
Juventude II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio 2 ↓

Juventude II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gremio 2 or draw
78%
Gremio 2 or Juventude II
76%
Draw or Juventude II
47%

Winning margin

Gremio 2 wins by 2+
29%
Juventude II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gremio 2 1+ goals
81%
Gremio 2 2+ goals
50%
Gremio 2 3+ goals
23%
Juventude II 1+ goals
63%
Juventude II 2+ goals
26%
Juventude II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gremio 2 (draw refunded)
70%
Juventude II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio 2 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Juventude II away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio 2 attack 1.25 + Juventude II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.67

Juventude II attack 0.73 + Gremio 2 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gremio 2 scores more
53%
level
24%
Juventude II scores more
22%

Gremio 2 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gremio 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gremio 2 vs Juventude II

Juventude II beat Gremio 2 1-0 in Copa Gaúcha on September 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Airton Ferreira da Silva in Eldoraldo do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul.