Greifswalder FC 2–1 Victoria Seelow: Result & Stats

Greifswalder FC

FT

2 – 1

Victoria Seelow

10/31/2021

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 12Volksstadion Greifswald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Greifswalder FC68%

×Draw18%

Victoria Seelow14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greifswalder FCExpected goals in this matchVictoria Seelow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

0.97

Greifswalder FC

2.36

Victoria Seelow

0.97

Greifswalder FC creates 143% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.95

creates per match

0.89

1.05

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Greifswalder FC

1.95

Victoria Seelow

0.89

allows per match

Greifswalder FC

1.05

Victoria Seelow

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Victoria Seelow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greifswalder FC ↓

Victoria Seelow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Greifswalder FC or draw

86%

Greifswalder FC or Victoria Seelow

82%

Draw or Victoria Seelow

32%

Winning margin

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+

45%

Victoria Seelow wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals

90%

Greifswalder FC 2+ goals

68%

Greifswalder FC 3+ goals

41%

Victoria Seelow 1+ goals

62%

Victoria Seelow 2+ goals

25%

Victoria Seelow 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)

83%

Victoria Seelow (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greifswalder FC at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Victoria Seelow away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greifswalder FC attack 1.95 + Victoria Seelow defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.36

Victoria Seelow attack 0.89 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Greifswalder FC scores more

68%

level

18%

Victoria Seelow scores more

14%

Greifswalder FC at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff