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Greifswalder FC vs Universitatea Craiova — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
FT
1 – 1
Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
1/10/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Regnum Carya Golf & Spa Resort

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Greifswalder FC54%
×Draw23%
Universitatea Craiova24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greifswalder FC
1.88
Universitatea Craiova
1.18

Greifswalder FC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Greifswalder FC
3.00
Universitatea Craiova
1.25

allows per match

Greifswalder FC
1.11
Universitatea Craiova
0.75

finishing

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par
Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greifswalder FC ↓

Universitatea Craiova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Greifswalder FC or draw
76%
Greifswalder FC or Universitatea Craiova
77%
Draw or Universitatea Craiova
46%

Winning margin

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
31%
Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
85%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
56%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
29%
Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
69%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
33%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
69%
Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greifswalder FC at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greifswalder FC attack 3.00 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.25 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Greifswalder FC scores more
54%
level
23%
Universitatea Craiova scores more
24%

Greifswalder FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Greifswalder FC vs Universitatea Craiova

Greifswalder FC and Universitatea Craiova drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 10, 2024.

The match was played at Regnum Carya Golf & Spa Resort in Belek.