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Greifswalder FC vs SV Babelsberg 03 — League #85 2026

Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SV Babelsberg 03
SV Babelsberg 03
4/8/2026League #85League #85 · Nordost - 22Volksstadion Greifswald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Greifswalder FC38%
×Draw26%
SV Babelsberg 0336%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greifswalder FC
1.32
SV Babelsberg 03
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 27 away

creates per match

Greifswalder FC
1.42
SV Babelsberg 03
1.56

allows per match

Greifswalder FC
1.00
SV Babelsberg 03
1.22

finishing

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par
SV Babelsberg 03+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greifswalder FC ↓

SV Babelsberg 03 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Greifswalder FC or draw
64%
Greifswalder FC or SV Babelsberg 03
74%
Draw or SV Babelsberg 03
62%

Winning margin

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
17%
SV Babelsberg 03 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
73%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
38%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
15%
SV Babelsberg 03 1+ goals
72%
SV Babelsberg 03 2+ goals
37%
SV Babelsberg 03 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
51%
SV Babelsberg 03 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greifswalder FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

SV Babelsberg 03 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greifswalder FC attack 1.42 + SV Babelsberg 03 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

SV Babelsberg 03 attack 1.56 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Greifswalder FC scores more
38%
level
26%
SV Babelsberg 03 scores more
36%

Greifswalder FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Greifswalder FC vs SV Babelsberg 03

Greifswalder FC and SV Babelsberg 03 drew 0-0 in League #85 on April 8, 2026.

The match was played at Volksstadion Greifswald in Greifswald.