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Greifswalder FC vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
Preview
13:00
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
11/22/2026Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 17
Big match
41%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
model favours
34%25%41%

Greifswalder FC score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Greifswalder FC34%
×Draw25%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greifswalder FC
1.35
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
1.50

FC Carl Zeiss Jena creates 11% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 18 away

creates per match

Greifswalder FC
1.42
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
2.00

allows per match

Greifswalder FC
1.00
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
1.28

finishing

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par
FC Carl Zeiss Jena+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greifswalder FC ↓

FC Carl Zeiss Jena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Greifswalder FC or draw
59%
Greifswalder FC or FC Carl Zeiss Jena
75%
Draw or FC Carl Zeiss Jena
66%

Winning margin

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
15%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
74%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
39%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
15%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1+ goals
78%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena 2+ goals
44%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
46%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greifswalder FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

FC Carl Zeiss Jena away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greifswalder FC attack 1.42 + FC Carl Zeiss Jena defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

FC Carl Zeiss Jena attack 2.00 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Greifswalder FC scores more
34%
level
25%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena scores more
41%

FC Carl Zeiss Jena at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Carl Zeiss Jena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 91% of Greifswalder FC’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
DLDWW
Jena
DWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Greifswalder FC face FC Carl Zeiss Jena (Regionalliga - Nordost)

Regionalliga - Nordost returns with Greifswalder FC hosting FC Carl Zeiss Jena. Match starts November 22, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.