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FC Carl Zeiss Jena vs Greifswalder FC — League #85 2026

FC Carl Zeiss Jena
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
T. Burmeister 90+4'
M. Eshele 66'
S. Benyamina 17'
4/17/2026League #85League #85 · Nordost - 30Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

FC Carl Zeiss Jena49%
×Draw24%
Greifswalder FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Carl Zeiss Jena
1.67
Greifswalder FC
1.15

FC Carl Zeiss Jena creates 45% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 33 away

creates per match

FC Carl Zeiss Jena
1.94
Greifswalder FC
1.12

allows per match

FC Carl Zeiss Jena
1.17
Greifswalder FC
1.39

finishing

FC Carl Zeiss Jena+0.00on par
Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Carl Zeiss Jena ↓

Greifswalder FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Carl Zeiss Jena or draw
74%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena or Greifswalder FC
76%
Draw or Greifswalder FC
51%

Winning margin

FC Carl Zeiss Jena wins by 2+
26%
Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1+ goals
81%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena 2+ goals
50%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena 3+ goals
23%
Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
68%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
32%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Carl Zeiss Jena (draw refunded)
65%
Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Carl Zeiss Jena at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Carl Zeiss Jena attack 1.94 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.67

Greifswalder FC attack 1.12 + FC Carl Zeiss Jena defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Carl Zeiss Jena scores more
49%
level
24%
Greifswalder FC scores more
26%

FC Carl Zeiss Jena at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Carl Zeiss Jena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
S. Benyamina
66'
M. Eshele
90+4'
T. Burmeister

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Carl Zeiss Jena vs Greifswalder FC

FC Carl Zeiss Jena beat Greifswalder FC 2-1 in League #85 on April 17, 2026.

Goals: S. Benyamina (17'), M. Eshele (66'), T. Burmeister (90+4').

The match was played at Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld in Jena.