Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Greifswalder FC vs BSG Chemie Leipzig — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
Preview
13:00
BSG Chemie Leipzig
BSG Chemie Leipzig
11/1/2026Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 15
Big match
48%
Greifswalder FC
model favours
48%26%26%

Greifswalder FC score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Greifswalder FC48%
×Draw26%
BSG Chemie Leipzig26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greifswalder FC
1.50
BSG Chemie Leipzig
1.04

Greifswalder FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 14 away

creates per match

Greifswalder FC
1.42
BSG Chemie Leipzig
1.07

allows per match

Greifswalder FC
1.00
BSG Chemie Leipzig
1.57

finishing

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par
BSG Chemie Leipzig+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greifswalder FC ↓

BSG Chemie Leipzig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Greifswalder FC or draw
74%
Greifswalder FC or BSG Chemie Leipzig
74%
Draw or BSG Chemie Leipzig
52%

Winning margin

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
24%
BSG Chemie Leipzig wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
78%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
44%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
19%
BSG Chemie Leipzig 1+ goals
65%
BSG Chemie Leipzig 2+ goals
28%
BSG Chemie Leipzig 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
65%
BSG Chemie Leipzig (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greifswalder FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

BSG Chemie Leipzig away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greifswalder FC attack 1.42 + BSG Chemie Leipzig defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

BSG Chemie Leipzig attack 1.07 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Greifswalder FC scores more
48%
level
26%
BSG Chemie Leipzig scores more
26%

Greifswalder FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 91% of Greifswalder FC’s matches
  • Greifswalder FC sit 2, BSG Chemie Leipzig 17 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
DLDWW
Leipzig
LLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Greifswalder FC face BSG Chemie Leipzig (Regionalliga - Nordost)

Regionalliga - Nordost returns with Greifswalder FC hosting BSG Chemie Leipzig. Match starts November 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.