BSG Chemie Leipzig 2–3 Greifswalder FC

BSG Chemie Leipzig

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Greifswalder FC

S. Ratifo 90'

J. Hoffmann 76'

T. Wagner 17'

L. Griebsch 9' (OG)

S. Benyamina 6'

12/14/2025

League #85 · Nordost - 19Alfred-Kunze-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

BSG Chemie Leipzig31%

×Draw27%

Greifswalder FC42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSG Chemie LeipzigExpected goals in this matchGreifswalder FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.35

BSG Chemie Leipzig

1.13

Greifswalder FC

1.35

Greifswalder FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 33 away

0.86

creates per match

1.12

1.57

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

BSG Chemie Leipzig

0.86

Greifswalder FC

1.12

allows per match

BSG Chemie Leipzig

1.57

Greifswalder FC

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BSG Chemie Leipzig+0.00on par

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSG Chemie Leipzig ↓

Greifswalder FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

BSG Chemie Leipzig or draw

58%

BSG Chemie Leipzig or Greifswalder FC

73%

Draw or Greifswalder FC

69%

Winning margin

BSG Chemie Leipzig wins by 2+

13%

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

BSG Chemie Leipzig 1+ goals

68%

BSG Chemie Leipzig 2+ goals

31%

BSG Chemie Leipzig 3+ goals

11%

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals

74%

Greifswalder FC 2+ goals

39%

Greifswalder FC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

BSG Chemie Leipzig (draw refunded)

43%

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSG Chemie Leipzig at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSG Chemie Leipzig attack 0.86 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.13

Greifswalder FC attack 1.12 + BSG Chemie Leipzig defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

BSG Chemie Leipzig scores more

31%

level

27%

Greifswalder FC scores more

42%

Greifswalder FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

S. Benyamina

9'

L. GriebschOwn goal

17'

T. Wagner

76'

J. Hoffmann

90'

S. Ratifo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff