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Grei W vs Øvrevoll Hosle W — 1. Division Women 2022

Grei W
Grei W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Øvrevoll Hosle W
Øvrevoll Hosle W
9/9/20231. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 17Greibanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Grei W41%
×Draw22%
Øvrevoll Hosle W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grei W
1.92
Øvrevoll Hosle W
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 37 away

creates per match

Grei W
1.61
Øvrevoll Hosle W
1.54

allows per match

Grei W
2.17
Øvrevoll Hosle W
2.22

finishing

Grei W+0.00on par
Øvrevoll Hosle W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grei W ↓

Øvrevoll Hosle W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Grei W or draw
62%
Grei W or Øvrevoll Hosle W
78%
Draw or Øvrevoll Hosle W
59%

Winning margin

Grei W wins by 2+
22%
Øvrevoll Hosle W wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Grei W 1+ goals
85%
Grei W 2+ goals
57%
Grei W 3+ goals
30%
Øvrevoll Hosle W 1+ goals
84%
Øvrevoll Hosle W 2+ goals
55%
Øvrevoll Hosle W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Grei W (draw refunded)
52%
Øvrevoll Hosle W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grei W at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

Øvrevoll Hosle W away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.22 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grei W attack 1.61 + Øvrevoll Hosle W defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.92

Øvrevoll Hosle W attack 1.54 + Grei W defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Grei W scores more
41%
level
22%
Øvrevoll Hosle W scores more
38%

Grei W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Grei W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grei W vs Øvrevoll Hosle W

Øvrevoll Hosle W beat Grei W 3-2 in 1. Division Women on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Greibanen in Oslo.