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Grei W vs Viking FK W — 1. Division Women 2022

Grei W
Grei W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Viking FK W
Viking FK W
4/18/20261. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Grei W29%
×Draw22%
Viking FK W49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grei W
1.47
Viking FK W
1.94

Viking FK W creates 32% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 28 away

creates per match

Grei W
1.61
Viking FK W
1.71

allows per match

Grei W
2.17
Viking FK W
1.32

finishing

Grei W+0.00on par
Viking FK W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grei W ↓

Viking FK W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Grei W or draw
51%
Grei W or Viking FK W
78%
Draw or Viking FK W
71%

Winning margin

Grei W wins by 2+
13%
Viking FK W wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Grei W 1+ goals
77%
Grei W 2+ goals
43%
Grei W 3+ goals
18%
Viking FK W 1+ goals
86%
Viking FK W 2+ goals
58%
Viking FK W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Grei W (draw refunded)
38%
Viking FK W (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grei W at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

Viking FK W away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grei W attack 1.61 + Viking FK W defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.47

Viking FK W attack 1.71 + Grei W defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Grei W scores more
29%
level
22%
Viking FK W scores more
49%

Viking FK W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Viking FK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division Women: Grei W 1–3 Viking FK W

Viking FK W beat Grei W 3-1 in 1. Division Women on April 18, 2026.