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Grei W vs Fortuna Ålesund W — 1. Division Women 2022

Grei W
Grei W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Fortuna Ålesund W
Fortuna Ålesund W
8/20/20231. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 14Greibanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Grei W29%
×Draw22%
Fortuna Ålesund W49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grei W
1.43
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.92

Fortuna Ålesund W creates 34% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 48 away

creates per match

Grei W
1.61
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.67

allows per match

Grei W
2.17
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.25

finishing

Grei W+0.00on par
Fortuna Ålesund W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grei W ↓

Fortuna Ålesund W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Grei W or draw
51%
Grei W or Fortuna Ålesund W
78%
Draw or Fortuna Ålesund W
71%

Winning margin

Grei W wins by 2+
13%
Fortuna Ålesund W wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Grei W 1+ goals
76%
Grei W 2+ goals
42%
Grei W 3+ goals
17%
Fortuna Ålesund W 1+ goals
85%
Fortuna Ålesund W 2+ goals
57%
Fortuna Ålesund W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Grei W (draw refunded)
37%
Fortuna Ålesund W (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grei W at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

Fortuna Ålesund W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grei W attack 1.61 + Fortuna Ålesund W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Fortuna Ålesund W attack 1.67 + Grei W defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Grei W scores more
29%
level
22%
Fortuna Ålesund W scores more
49%

Fortuna Ålesund W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fortuna Ålesund W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grei W vs Fortuna Ålesund W

Fortuna Ålesund W beat Grei W 2-1 in 1. Division Women on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Greibanen in Oslo.