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Greenville Triumph vs Northern Colorado — USL League One 2019

Greenville Triumph
Greenville Triumph
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
6/25/2022USL League OneUSL League One · Round 7Triumph Stadium at Legacy Early College

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Greenville Triumph39%
×Draw27%
Northern Colorado34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greenville Triumph
1.27
Northern Colorado
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 43 away

creates per match

Greenville Triumph
1.37
Northern Colorado
1.26

allows per match

Greenville Triumph
1.05
Northern Colorado
1.16

finishing

Greenville Triumph+0.00on par
Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greenville Triumph ↓

Northern Colorado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Greenville Triumph or draw
66%
Greenville Triumph or Northern Colorado
73%
Draw or Northern Colorado
61%

Winning margin

Greenville Triumph wins by 2+
17%
Northern Colorado wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Greenville Triumph 1+ goals
72%
Greenville Triumph 2+ goals
36%
Greenville Triumph 3+ goals
14%
Northern Colorado 1+ goals
69%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
32%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Greenville Triumph (draw refunded)
54%
Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greenville Triumph at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Northern Colorado away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greenville Triumph attack 1.37 + Northern Colorado defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Northern Colorado attack 1.26 + Greenville Triumph defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Greenville Triumph scores more
39%
level
27%
Northern Colorado scores more
34%

Greenville Triumph at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Greenville Triumph will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League One: Greenville Triumph 2–1 Northern Colorado

Greenville Triumph beat Northern Colorado 2-1 in USL League One on June 25, 2022.

The match was played at Triumph Stadium at Legacy Early College in City View, South Carolina.