Greenville Triumph 3–0 Forward Madison

Greenville Triumph

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Forward Madison

R. Mensah 46', 31', 10'

9/20/2025

USL League One · Round 17Paladin Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Greenville Triumph45%

×Draw25%

Forward Madison30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greenville TriumphExpected goals in this matchForward Madison

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.22

Greenville Triumph

1.54

Forward Madison

1.22

Greenville Triumph creates 26% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 27 away

1.33

creates per match

1.11

1.33

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Greenville Triumph

1.33

Forward Madison

1.11

allows per match

Greenville Triumph

1.33

Forward Madison

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greenville Triumph+0.00on par

Forward Madison+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greenville Triumph ↓

Forward Madison →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Greenville Triumph or draw

70%

Greenville Triumph or Forward Madison

75%

Draw or Forward Madison

55%

Winning margin

Greenville Triumph wins by 2+

22%

Forward Madison wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Greenville Triumph 1+ goals

79%

Greenville Triumph 2+ goals

45%

Greenville Triumph 3+ goals

20%

Forward Madison 1+ goals

70%

Forward Madison 2+ goals

34%

Forward Madison 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Greenville Triumph (draw refunded)

60%

Forward Madison (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greenville Triumph at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

Forward Madison away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greenville Triumph attack 1.33 + Forward Madison defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.54

Forward Madison attack 1.11 + Greenville Triumph defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Greenville Triumph scores more

45%

level

25%

Forward Madison scores more

30%

Greenville Triumph at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Greenville Triumph will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

R. Mensah↳ R. Robles

20'

J. Ramos

31'

R. Mensah↳ C. Herrera

33'

E. Soto

46'

R. Mensah

57'

M. Gonzalez← R. Mensah

57'

D. Gebhard← D. Boltz

57'

W. Lapsley← B. Schipmann

57'

57'

62'

64'

70'

70'

70'

78'

82'

82'

C. Anguiano← C. Herrera

89'

C. Evans

Greenville

Forward

1

▼

Schipmann

11

▼

5

14

16

3

▼

Viader

80

Angking

6

Murphy

10

▼

Mesias

99

▼

9

1

77

5

2

21

▼

Soto

8

A

▼

Herrera

18

Evans

19

▼

Marsh

12

▼

Lee

20

⚽3

▼

Mensah

9

A

Robles

Manager: Rick Wright

57'▲M. Gonzalez←▼R. Mensah

70'▲P. Corvino←▼E. Soto

70'▲I. Agyaakwah←▼E. Lee

82'▲T. Polak←▼C. Marsh

82'▲C. Anguiano←▼C. Herrera

Greenville Triumph substitutes

30Torman3Polak6Anguiano7Zakowski17Gonzalez11Corvino10Velasquez80Blinzler23Agyaakwah

Manager: Matthew Glaeser

57'▲D. Gebhard←▼D. Boltz

57'▲W. Lapsley←▼B. Schipmann

57'▲N. Brown←▼C. Garcia

57'▲D. Boyce←▼A. Mesias

70'▲F. Sousa←▼D. Viader

Forward Madison substitutes

25Sousa17Gebhard19Galindrez36Lapsley2Chilaka77Brown8Boyce

USL League One: Greenville Triumph 3–0 Forward Madison

Greenville Triumph beat Forward Madison 3-0 in USL League One on September 20, 2025.

Goals: R. Mensah (10', 31', 46').

The match was played at Paladin Stadium.

Greenville Triumph vs Forward Madison — USL League One 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

USL League One: Greenville Triumph 3–0 Forward Madison