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Greenville Triumph vs Central Valley Fuego — USL League One 2019

Greenville Triumph
Greenville Triumph
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Central Valley Fuego
Central Valley Fuego
4/3/2022USL League OneUSL League One · Round 1Triumph Stadium at Legacy Early College

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Greenville Triumph48%
×Draw24%
Central Valley Fuego28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greenville Triumph
1.66
Central Valley Fuego
1.21

Greenville Triumph creates 37% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 42 away

creates per match

Greenville Triumph
1.37
Central Valley Fuego
1.38

allows per match

Greenville Triumph
1.05
Central Valley Fuego
1.95

finishing

Greenville Triumph+0.00on par
Central Valley Fuego+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greenville Triumph ↓

Central Valley Fuego →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Greenville Triumph or draw
72%
Greenville Triumph or Central Valley Fuego
76%
Draw or Central Valley Fuego
52%

Winning margin

Greenville Triumph wins by 2+
25%
Central Valley Fuego wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Greenville Triumph 1+ goals
81%
Greenville Triumph 2+ goals
49%
Greenville Triumph 3+ goals
23%
Central Valley Fuego 1+ goals
70%
Central Valley Fuego 2+ goals
34%
Central Valley Fuego 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Greenville Triumph (draw refunded)
63%
Central Valley Fuego (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greenville Triumph at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Central Valley Fuego away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greenville Triumph attack 1.37 + Central Valley Fuego defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.66

Central Valley Fuego attack 1.38 + Greenville Triumph defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Greenville Triumph scores more
48%
level
24%
Central Valley Fuego scores more
28%

Greenville Triumph at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Greenville Triumph will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Greenville Triumph vs Central Valley Fuego

Central Valley Fuego beat Greenville Triumph 2-0 in USL League One on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Triumph Stadium at Legacy Early College in City View, South Carolina.