Central Valley Fuego 1–0 Greenville Triumph

Central Valley Fuego

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Greenville Triumph

D. Benson 82'

10/20/2024

USL League One · Round 14Fresno State Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Central Valley Fuego30%

×Draw26%

Greenville Triumph44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Valley FuegoExpected goals in this matchGreenville Triumph

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.48

Central Valley Fuego

1.16

Greenville Triumph

1.48

Greenville Triumph creates 28% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 104 away

1.00

creates per match

1.29

1.67

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Central Valley Fuego

1.00

Greenville Triumph

1.29

allows per match

Central Valley Fuego

1.67

Greenville Triumph

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Valley Fuego+0.00on par

Greenville Triumph+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Valley Fuego ↓

Greenville Triumph →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Central Valley Fuego or draw

56%

Central Valley Fuego or Greenville Triumph

74%

Draw or Greenville Triumph

70%

Winning margin

Central Valley Fuego wins by 2+

12%

Greenville Triumph wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Central Valley Fuego 1+ goals

69%

Central Valley Fuego 2+ goals

32%

Central Valley Fuego 3+ goals

11%

Greenville Triumph 1+ goals

77%

Greenville Triumph 2+ goals

43%

Greenville Triumph 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Central Valley Fuego (draw refunded)

40%

Greenville Triumph (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Valley Fuego at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 42 matches

Greenville Triumph away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Valley Fuego attack 1.00 + Greenville Triumph defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Greenville Triumph attack 1.29 + Central Valley Fuego defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Central Valley Fuego scores more

30%

level

26%

Greenville Triumph scores more

44%

Greenville Triumph at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Greenville Triumph will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

J. Carrera

33'

A. Midence← Z. Smuck

39'

Z. Scarlett

46'

H. Anderson← L. MacKinnon

60'

R. Robles← Z. Scarlett

65'

O. Lemus← K. Garcia

79'

O. Hald← D. Wu

82'

D. Benson↳ A. Midence

84'

T. Polak

89'

P. Corvino← N. Shultz

90+2'

D. Nembhard← A. Midence

Central

Greenville

1

3

5

12

2

▼

Wu

22

▼

8

25

10

17

▼

Scarlett

9

▼

1

7

24

33

15

10

8

34

▼

Garcia

9

⚽

Benson

32

Mariona

35

▼

Smuck

Manager: J. Jones

33'▲A. Midence←▼Z. Smuck

65'▲O. Lemus←▼K. Garcia

90+2'▲D. Nembhard←▼A. Midence

Central Valley Fuego substitutes

20Midence17Lemus31Nembhard14Vazquez23Ávilez11Mendiola3Apollon

Manager: R. Wright

46'▲H. Anderson←▼L. MacKinnon

60'▲R. Robles←▼Z. Scarlett

79'▲O. Hald←▼D. Wu

89'▲P. Corvino←▼N. Shultz

Greenville Triumph substitutes

20Anderson29Robles15Hald16Corvino19Gabo23Garner6Anguiano

USL League One: Central Valley Fuego 1–0 Greenville Triumph

Central Valley Fuego beat Greenville Triumph 1-0 in USL League One on October 20, 2024.

Goals: D. Benson (82').

The match was played at Fresno State Soccer Stadium in Fresno, California.

Central Valley Fuego vs Greenville Triumph — USL League One 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

USL League One: Central Valley Fuego 1–0 Greenville Triumph