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Istiqlol vs Xayr — Vysshaya Liga 2015

Istiqlol
Istiqlol
FT
8 – 0
Xayr
Xayr
8/9/2015Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 11Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Istiqlol74%
×Draw16%
Xayr10%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istiqlol
2.57
Xayr
0.83

Istiqlol creates 210% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 21 away

creates per match

Istiqlol
3.00
Xayr
1.24

allows per match

Istiqlol
0.42
Xayr
2.14

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par
Xayr+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Xayr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw
90%
Istiqlol or Xayr
84%
Draw or Xayr
26%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+
52%
Xayr wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals
92%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
72%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
47%
Xayr 1+ goals
56%
Xayr 2+ goals
20%
Xayr 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)
88%
Xayr (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.42 · 40 matches

Xayr away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.14 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 3.00 + Xayr defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.57

Xayr attack 1.24 + Istiqlol defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Istiqlol scores more
74%
level
16%
Xayr scores more
10%

Istiqlol at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Istiqlol 8–0 Xayr

Istiqlol beat Xayr 8-0 in Vysshaya Liga on August 9, 2015.

The match was played at Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze in Dushanbe.