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Panjsher vs Khatlon — Vysshaya Liga 2017

Panjsher
Panjsher
FT
6 – 2
Khatlon
Khatlon
6/17/2017Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 12Stadion Central'nyj im. Uktama Mamatova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Panjsher28%
×Draw24%
Khatlon48%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panjsher
1.24
Khatlon
1.69

Khatlon creates 36% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 39 away

creates per match

Panjsher
1.11
Khatlon
1.13

allows per match

Panjsher
2.25
Khatlon
1.36

finishing

Panjsher+0.00on par
Khatlon+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panjsher ↓

Khatlon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Panjsher or draw
52%
Panjsher or Khatlon
76%
Draw or Khatlon
72%

Winning margin

Panjsher wins by 2+
12%
Khatlon wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Panjsher 1+ goals
71%
Panjsher 2+ goals
35%
Panjsher 3+ goals
13%
Khatlon 1+ goals
82%
Khatlon 2+ goals
50%
Khatlon 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Panjsher (draw refunded)
37%
Khatlon (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panjsher at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.25 · 28 matches

Khatlon away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panjsher attack 1.11 + Khatlon defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.24

Khatlon attack 1.13 + Panjsher defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Panjsher scores more
28%
level
24%
Khatlon scores more
48%

Khatlon at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Khatlon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panjsher vs Khatlon

Panjsher beat Khatlon 6-2 in Vysshaya Liga on June 17, 2017.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj im. Uktama Mamatova in Kolkhozabad.