Annagh United 1–1 Banbridge Town: Result & Stats

Annagh United

FT

1 – 1

Banbridge Town

1/13/2018

Premier Intermediate League · Round 13Tandragee Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Annagh United58%

×Draw18%

Banbridge Town24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Annagh UnitedExpected goals in this matchBanbridge Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.81

1.81

Annagh United

2.81

Banbridge Town

1.81

Annagh United creates 55% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

2.33

creates per match

1.29

2.33

allows per match

3.29

creates per match

Annagh United

2.33

Banbridge Town

1.29

allows per match

Annagh United

2.33

Banbridge Town

3.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Annagh United+0.00on par

Banbridge Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annagh United ↓

Banbridge Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Annagh United or draw

76%

Annagh United or Banbridge Town

82%

Draw or Banbridge Town

42%

Winning margin

Annagh United wins by 2+

38%

Banbridge Town wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Annagh United 1+ goals

94%

Annagh United 2+ goals

76%

Annagh United 3+ goals

52%

Banbridge Town 1+ goals

84%

Banbridge Town 2+ goals

54%

Banbridge Town 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Annagh United (draw refunded)

71%

Banbridge Town (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annagh United at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Banbridge Town away — creates 1.29, concedes 3.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annagh United attack 2.33 + Banbridge Town defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 2.81

Banbridge Town attack 1.29 + Annagh United defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Annagh United scores more

58%

level

18%

Banbridge Town scores more

24%

Annagh United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Annagh United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff