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Dollingstown vs Sport & Leisure Swifts — League #561 2026

Dollingstown
Dollingstown
FT
0 – 1
Sport & Leisure Swifts
Sport & Leisure Swifts
1/5/2019League #561League #561 · Round 10Planters Park (Lurgan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dollingstown60%
×Draw18%
Sport & Leisure Swifts22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dollingstown
2.56
Sport & Leisure Swifts
1.50

Dollingstown creates 71% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 13 away

creates per match

Dollingstown
2.04
Sport & Leisure Swifts
1.38

allows per match

Dollingstown
1.63
Sport & Leisure Swifts
3.08

finishing

Dollingstown+0.00on par
Sport & Leisure Swifts+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dollingstown ↓

Sport & Leisure Swifts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Dollingstown or draw
78%
Dollingstown or Sport & Leisure Swifts
82%
Draw or Sport & Leisure Swifts
40%

Winning margin

Dollingstown wins by 2+
39%
Sport & Leisure Swifts wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dollingstown 1+ goals
92%
Dollingstown 2+ goals
72%
Dollingstown 3+ goals
46%
Sport & Leisure Swifts 1+ goals
78%
Sport & Leisure Swifts 2+ goals
44%
Sport & Leisure Swifts 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dollingstown (draw refunded)
74%
Sport & Leisure Swifts (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dollingstown at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

Sport & Leisure Swifts away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dollingstown attack 2.04 + Sport & Leisure Swifts defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.56

Sport & Leisure Swifts attack 1.38 + Dollingstown defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dollingstown scores more
60%
level
18%
Sport & Leisure Swifts scores more
22%

Dollingstown at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dollingstown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #561: Dollingstown 0–1 Sport & Leisure Swifts

Sport & Leisure Swifts beat Dollingstown 1-0 in League #561 on January 5, 2019.

The match was played at Planters Park (Lurgan).