Green Mamba 2–0 Young Buffaloes: Result & Stats

Green Mamba

FT

2 – 0

Young Buffaloes

12/7/2024

Premier League · Round 8Mkhuzweni Technical Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Green Mamba30%

×Draw26%

Young Buffaloes43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Green MambaExpected goals in this matchYoung Buffaloes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.42

Green Mamba

1.14

Young Buffaloes

1.42

Young Buffaloes creates 25% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 86 away

1.49

creates per match

1.86

0.98

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Green Mamba

1.49

Young Buffaloes

1.86

allows per match

Green Mamba

0.98

Young Buffaloes

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Green Mamba+0.00on par

Young Buffaloes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Mamba ↓

Young Buffaloes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Green Mamba or draw

57%

Green Mamba or Young Buffaloes

74%

Draw or Young Buffaloes

70%

Winning margin

Green Mamba wins by 2+

12%

Young Buffaloes wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Green Mamba 1+ goals

68%

Green Mamba 2+ goals

32%

Green Mamba 3+ goals

11%

Young Buffaloes 1+ goals

76%

Young Buffaloes 2+ goals

41%

Young Buffaloes 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Green Mamba (draw refunded)

41%

Young Buffaloes (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Mamba at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.98 · 85 matches

Young Buffaloes away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Mamba attack 1.49 + Young Buffaloes defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.14

Young Buffaloes attack 1.86 + Green Mamba defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Green Mamba scores more

30%

level

26%

Young Buffaloes scores more

43%

Young Buffaloes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Young Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff