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Green Mamba vs Tambankulu Callies — Premier League 2020

Green Mamba
Green Mamba
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Tambankulu Callies
Tambankulu Callies
4/9/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Green Mamba52%
×Draw26%
Tambankulu Callies22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Mamba
1.50
Tambankulu Callies
0.86

Green Mamba creates 74% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 42 away

creates per match

Green Mamba
1.49
Tambankulu Callies
0.74

allows per match

Green Mamba
0.98
Tambankulu Callies
1.52

finishing

Green Mamba+0.00on par
Tambankulu Callies+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Mamba ↓

Tambankulu Callies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Green Mamba or draw
78%
Green Mamba or Tambankulu Callies
74%
Draw or Tambankulu Callies
48%

Winning margin

Green Mamba wins by 2+
27%
Tambankulu Callies wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Green Mamba 1+ goals
78%
Green Mamba 2+ goals
44%
Green Mamba 3+ goals
19%
Tambankulu Callies 1+ goals
58%
Tambankulu Callies 2+ goals
21%
Tambankulu Callies 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Green Mamba (draw refunded)
71%
Tambankulu Callies (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Mamba at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.98 · 85 matches

Tambankulu Callies away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Mamba attack 1.49 + Tambankulu Callies defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tambankulu Callies attack 0.74 + Green Mamba defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Green Mamba scores more
52%
level
26%
Tambankulu Callies scores more
22%

Green Mamba at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Green Mamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Green Mamba 1–3 Tambankulu Callies

Tambankulu Callies beat Green Mamba 3-1 in Premier League on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.