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Green Mamba vs Nsingizini Hotspurs — Premier League 2020

Green Mamba
Green Mamba
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Nsingizini Hotspurs
Nsingizini Hotspurs
12/9/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Kalanga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Green Mamba34%
×Draw29%
Nsingizini Hotspurs38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Mamba
1.08
Nsingizini Hotspurs
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 54 away

creates per match

Green Mamba
1.49
Nsingizini Hotspurs
1.33

allows per match

Green Mamba
0.98
Nsingizini Hotspurs
0.67

finishing

Green Mamba+0.00on par
Nsingizini Hotspurs+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Mamba ↓

Nsingizini Hotspurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Green Mamba or draw
62%
Green Mamba or Nsingizini Hotspurs
71%
Draw or Nsingizini Hotspurs
66%

Winning margin

Green Mamba wins by 2+
13%
Nsingizini Hotspurs wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Green Mamba 1+ goals
66%
Green Mamba 2+ goals
29%
Green Mamba 3+ goals
10%
Nsingizini Hotspurs 1+ goals
69%
Nsingizini Hotspurs 2+ goals
32%
Nsingizini Hotspurs 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Green Mamba (draw refunded)
47%
Nsingizini Hotspurs (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Mamba at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.98 · 85 matches

Nsingizini Hotspurs away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Mamba attack 1.49 + Nsingizini Hotspurs defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Nsingizini Hotspurs attack 1.33 + Green Mamba defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Green Mamba scores more
34%
level
29%
Nsingizini Hotspurs scores more
38%

Nsingizini Hotspurs at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nsingizini Hotspurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Green Mamba 4–0 Nsingizini Hotspurs

Green Mamba beat Nsingizini Hotspurs 4-0 in Premier League on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Kalanga Stadium in Kalanga.