Green Mamba 2–2 Malanti Chiefs: Result & Stats

Green Mamba

FT

2 – 2

Malanti Chiefs

1/9/2022

Premier League · Round 8Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Green Mamba54%

×Draw25%

Malanti Chiefs21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Green MambaExpected goals in this matchMalanti Chiefs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.92

Green Mamba

1.64

Malanti Chiefs

0.92

Green Mamba creates 78% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 46 away

1.49

creates per match

0.85

0.98

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Green Mamba

1.49

Malanti Chiefs

0.85

allows per match

Green Mamba

0.98

Malanti Chiefs

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Green Mamba+0.00on par

Malanti Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Mamba ↓

Malanti Chiefs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Green Mamba or draw

79%

Green Mamba or Malanti Chiefs

75%

Draw or Malanti Chiefs

46%

Winning margin

Green Mamba wins by 2+

29%

Malanti Chiefs wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Green Mamba 1+ goals

81%

Green Mamba 2+ goals

49%

Green Mamba 3+ goals

23%

Malanti Chiefs 1+ goals

60%

Malanti Chiefs 2+ goals

23%

Malanti Chiefs 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Green Mamba (draw refunded)

72%

Malanti Chiefs (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Mamba at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.98 · 85 matches

Malanti Chiefs away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.78 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Mamba attack 1.49 + Malanti Chiefs defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.64

Malanti Chiefs attack 0.85 + Green Mamba defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Green Mamba scores more

54%

level

25%

Malanti Chiefs scores more

21%

Green Mamba at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Green Mamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff