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Green Mamba vs Illovo — Premier League 2020

Green Mamba
Green Mamba
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Illovo
Illovo
9/24/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Kalanga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Green Mamba49%
×Draw26%
Illovo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Mamba
1.52
Illovo
1.01

Green Mamba creates 50% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 26 away

creates per match

Green Mamba
1.49
Illovo
1.04

allows per match

Green Mamba
0.98
Illovo
1.54

finishing

Green Mamba+0.00on par
Illovo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Mamba ↓

Illovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Green Mamba or draw
75%
Green Mamba or Illovo
74%
Draw or Illovo
51%

Winning margin

Green Mamba wins by 2+
25%
Illovo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Green Mamba 1+ goals
78%
Green Mamba 2+ goals
45%
Green Mamba 3+ goals
20%
Illovo 1+ goals
64%
Illovo 2+ goals
27%
Illovo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Green Mamba (draw refunded)
66%
Illovo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Mamba at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.98 · 85 matches

Illovo away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Mamba attack 1.49 + Illovo defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.52

Illovo attack 1.04 + Green Mamba defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Green Mamba scores more
49%
level
26%
Illovo scores more
25%

Green Mamba at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Green Mamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Green Mamba vs Illovo

Illovo beat Green Mamba 3-1 in Premier League on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Kalanga Stadium in Kalanga.