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Green Mamba vs Black Swallows — Premier League 2020

Green Mamba
Green Mamba
FT
3 – 1
Black Swallows
Black Swallows
8/4/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Green Mamba59%
×Draw23%
Black Swallows18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Mamba
1.75
Black Swallows
0.85

Green Mamba creates 106% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

creates per match

Green Mamba
1.49
Black Swallows
0.73

allows per match

Green Mamba
0.98
Black Swallows
2.00

finishing

Green Mamba+0.00on par
Black Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Mamba ↓

Black Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Green Mamba or draw
82%
Green Mamba or Black Swallows
77%
Draw or Black Swallows
41%

Winning margin

Green Mamba wins by 2+
33%
Black Swallows wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Green Mamba 1+ goals
83%
Green Mamba 2+ goals
52%
Green Mamba 3+ goals
25%
Black Swallows 1+ goals
57%
Black Swallows 2+ goals
21%
Black Swallows 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Green Mamba (draw refunded)
77%
Black Swallows (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Mamba at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.98 · 85 matches

Black Swallows away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Mamba attack 1.49 + Black Swallows defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Black Swallows attack 0.73 + Green Mamba defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Green Mamba scores more
59%
level
23%
Black Swallows scores more
18%

Green Mamba at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Green Mamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Green Mamba vs Black Swallows

Green Mamba beat Black Swallows 3-1 in Premier League on August 4, 2021.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.