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Green Gully vs Kingston City — Victoria NPL 2026

Green Gully
Green Gully
FT
5 – 2
Kingston City
Kingston City
7/20/2019Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 22Green Gully Reserve (Melbourne)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Green Gully43%
×Draw22%
Kingston City35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Gully
1.88
Kingston City
1.66

Green Gully creates 13% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 13 away

creates per match

Green Gully
1.75
Kingston City
1.62

allows per match

Green Gully
1.69
Kingston City
2.00

finishing

Green Gully+0.00on par
Kingston City+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Gully ↓

Kingston City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Green Gully or draw
65%
Green Gully or Kingston City
78%
Draw or Kingston City
57%

Winning margin

Green Gully wins by 2+
24%
Kingston City wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Green Gully 1+ goals
85%
Green Gully 2+ goals
56%
Green Gully 3+ goals
29%
Kingston City 1+ goals
81%
Kingston City 2+ goals
49%
Kingston City 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Green Gully (draw refunded)
56%
Kingston City (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Gully at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.69 · 89 matches

Kingston City away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Gully attack 1.75 + Kingston City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Kingston City attack 1.62 + Green Gully defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Green Gully scores more
43%
level
22%
Kingston City scores more
35%

Green Gully at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Green Gully will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Green Gully 5–2 Kingston City

Green Gully beat Kingston City 5-2 in Victoria NPL on July 20, 2019.

The match was played at Green Gully Reserve (Melbourne).