Green Gully 1–3 Hume City: Result & Stats

Green Gully

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Hume City

4/14/2023

Victoria NPL · Round 9Green Gully Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Green Gully38%

×Draw23%

Hume City39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Green GullyExpected goals in this matchHume City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.70

Green Gully

1.66

Hume City

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 86 away

1.75

creates per match

1.70

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Green Gully

1.75

Hume City

1.70

allows per match

Green Gully

1.70

Hume City

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Green Gully+0.00on par

Hume City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Gully ↓

Hume City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Green Gully or draw

61%

Green Gully or Hume City

77%

Draw or Hume City

62%

Winning margin

Green Gully wins by 2+

19%

Hume City wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Green Gully 1+ goals

81%

Green Gully 2+ goals

49%

Green Gully 3+ goals

23%

Hume City 1+ goals

82%

Hume City 2+ goals

51%

Hume City 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Green Gully (draw refunded)

49%

Hume City (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Gully at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.70 · 88 matches

Hume City away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Gully attack 1.75 + Hume City defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.66

Hume City attack 1.70 + Green Gully defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Green Gully scores more

38%

level

23%

Hume City scores more

39%

Hume City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hume City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff