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Green Gully vs Avondale — Victoria NPL 2026

Green Gully
Green Gully
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Avondale
Avondale
5/9/2025Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 13Green Gully Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Green Gully29%
×Draw22%
Avondale49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Gully
1.46
Avondale
1.96

Avondale creates 34% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 87 away

creates per match

Green Gully
1.75
Avondale
2.22

allows per match

Green Gully
1.70
Avondale
1.17

finishing

Green Gully+0.00on par
Avondale+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Gully ↓

Avondale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Green Gully or draw
51%
Green Gully or Avondale
78%
Draw or Avondale
71%

Winning margin

Green Gully wins by 2+
13%
Avondale wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Green Gully 1+ goals
77%
Green Gully 2+ goals
43%
Green Gully 3+ goals
18%
Avondale 1+ goals
86%
Avondale 2+ goals
58%
Avondale 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Green Gully (draw refunded)
37%
Avondale (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Gully at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.70 · 88 matches

Avondale away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Gully attack 1.75 + Avondale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Avondale attack 2.22 + Green Gully defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Green Gully scores more
29%
level
22%
Avondale scores more
49%

Avondale at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Green Gully 5–2 Avondale

Green Gully beat Avondale 5-2 in Victoria NPL on May 9, 2025.

The match was played at Green Gully Reserve in Melbourne.