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Green Fuel vs Sheasham — Premier Soccer League 2026

Green Fuel
Green Fuel
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sheasham
Sheasham
9/9/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 22GreenFuel Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Green Fuel48%
×Draw31%
Sheasham21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Fuel
1.19
Sheasham
0.67

Green Fuel creates 78% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Green Fuel
1.08
Sheasham
0.59

allows per match

Green Fuel
0.75
Sheasham
1.29

finishing

Green Fuel+0.00on par
Sheasham+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Fuel ↓

Sheasham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Green Fuel or draw
79%
Green Fuel or Sheasham
69%
Draw or Sheasham
52%

Winning margin

Green Fuel wins by 2+
22%
Sheasham wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Green Fuel 1+ goals
70%
Green Fuel 2+ goals
33%
Green Fuel 3+ goals
12%
Sheasham 1+ goals
49%
Sheasham 2+ goals
15%
Sheasham 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Green Fuel (draw refunded)
70%
Sheasham (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Fuel at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.75 · 51 matches

Sheasham away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Fuel attack 1.08 + Sheasham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sheasham attack 0.59 + Green Fuel defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Green Fuel scores more
48%
level
31%
Sheasham scores more
21%

Green Fuel at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Green Fuel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Green Fuel 1–0 Sheasham

Green Fuel beat Sheasham 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at GreenFuel Arena in Chisumbanje.