Green Fuel 1–0 Hwange: Result & Stats

Green Fuel

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hwange

11/6/2024

Premier Soccer League · Round 32GreenFuel Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Green Fuel49%

×Draw30%

Hwange21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Green FuelExpected goals in this matchHwange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.68

Green Fuel

1.23

Hwange

0.68

Green Fuel creates 81% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

1.08

creates per match

0.60

0.75

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Green Fuel

1.08

Hwange

0.60

allows per match

Green Fuel

0.75

Hwange

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Green Fuel+0.00on par

Hwange+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Fuel ↓

Hwange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Green Fuel or draw

79%

Green Fuel or Hwange

70%

Draw or Hwange

51%

Winning margin

Green Fuel wins by 2+

22%

Hwange wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Green Fuel 1+ goals

71%

Green Fuel 2+ goals

35%

Green Fuel 3+ goals

13%

Hwange 1+ goals

49%

Hwange 2+ goals

15%

Hwange 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Green Fuel (draw refunded)

71%

Hwange (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Fuel at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.75 · 51 matches

Hwange away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.37 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Fuel attack 1.08 + Hwange defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.23

Hwange attack 0.60 + Green Fuel defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Green Fuel scores more

49%

level

30%

Hwange scores more

21%

Green Fuel at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Green Fuel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff