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Green Fuel vs Chegutu Pirates — Premier Soccer League 2026

Green Fuel
Green Fuel
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chegutu Pirates
Chegutu Pirates
7/28/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 21GreenFuel Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Green Fuel45%
×Draw35%
Chegutu Pirates20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Fuel
0.98
Chegutu Pirates
0.55

Green Fuel creates 78% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Green Fuel
1.08
Chegutu Pirates
0.35

allows per match

Green Fuel
0.75
Chegutu Pirates
0.88

finishing

Green Fuel+0.00on par
Chegutu Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Fuel ↓

Chegutu Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–112%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Green Fuel or draw
80%
Green Fuel or Chegutu Pirates
65%
Draw or Chegutu Pirates
55%

Winning margin

Green Fuel wins by 2+
17%
Chegutu Pirates wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Green Fuel 1+ goals
62%
Green Fuel 2+ goals
26%
Green Fuel 3+ goals
8%
Chegutu Pirates 1+ goals
42%
Chegutu Pirates 2+ goals
11%
Chegutu Pirates 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Green Fuel (draw refunded)
69%
Chegutu Pirates (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Fuel at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.75 · 51 matches

Chegutu Pirates away — creates 0.35, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Fuel attack 1.08 + Chegutu Pirates defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.98

Chegutu Pirates attack 0.35 + Green Fuel defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Green Fuel scores more
45%
level
35%
Chegutu Pirates scores more
20%

Green Fuel at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Green Fuel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Green Fuel 0–0 Chegutu Pirates

Green Fuel and Chegutu Pirates drew 0-0 in Premier Soccer League on July 28, 2024.

The match was played at GreenFuel Arena in Chisumbanje.