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Green Fuel vs Bulawayo Chiefs — Premier Soccer League 2026

Green Fuel
Green Fuel
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bulawayo Chiefs
Bulawayo Chiefs
3/9/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 1GreenFuel Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Green Fuel45%
×Draw31%
Bulawayo Chiefs25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Fuel
1.16
Bulawayo Chiefs
0.78

Green Fuel creates 49% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 80 away

creates per match

Green Fuel
1.08
Bulawayo Chiefs
0.81

allows per match

Green Fuel
0.75
Bulawayo Chiefs
1.24

finishing

Green Fuel+0.00on par
Bulawayo Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Fuel ↓

Bulawayo Chiefs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Green Fuel or draw
75%
Green Fuel or Bulawayo Chiefs
69%
Draw or Bulawayo Chiefs
55%

Winning margin

Green Fuel wins by 2+
19%
Bulawayo Chiefs wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Green Fuel 1+ goals
69%
Green Fuel 2+ goals
32%
Green Fuel 3+ goals
11%
Bulawayo Chiefs 1+ goals
54%
Bulawayo Chiefs 2+ goals
18%
Bulawayo Chiefs 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Green Fuel (draw refunded)
64%
Bulawayo Chiefs (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Fuel at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.75 · 51 matches

Bulawayo Chiefs away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.24 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Fuel attack 1.08 + Bulawayo Chiefs defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Bulawayo Chiefs attack 0.81 + Green Fuel defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Green Fuel scores more
45%
level
31%
Bulawayo Chiefs scores more
25%

Green Fuel at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Green Fuel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Green Fuel vs Bulawayo Chiefs

Green Fuel beat Bulawayo Chiefs 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at GreenFuel Arena in Chisumbanje.