Green Fuel 3–0 Arenel Movers: Result & Stats

Green Fuel

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Arenel Movers

4/28/2024

Premier Soccer League · Round 9GreenFuel Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Green Fuel55%

×Draw28%

Arenel Movers18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Green FuelExpected goals in this matchArenel Movers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.67

Green Fuel

1.40

Arenel Movers

0.67

Green Fuel creates 109% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.08

creates per match

0.59

0.75

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Green Fuel

1.08

Arenel Movers

0.59

allows per match

Green Fuel

0.75

Arenel Movers

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Green Fuel+0.00on par

Arenel Movers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Fuel ↓

Arenel Movers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Green Fuel or draw

82%

Green Fuel or Arenel Movers

72%

Draw or Arenel Movers

45%

Winning margin

Green Fuel wins by 2+

27%

Arenel Movers wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Green Fuel 1+ goals

75%

Green Fuel 2+ goals

41%

Green Fuel 3+ goals

17%

Arenel Movers 1+ goals

49%

Arenel Movers 2+ goals

15%

Arenel Movers 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Green Fuel (draw refunded)

75%

Arenel Movers (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Fuel at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.75 · 51 matches

Arenel Movers away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Fuel attack 1.08 + Arenel Movers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.40

Arenel Movers attack 0.59 + Green Fuel defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Green Fuel scores more

55%

level

28%

Arenel Movers scores more

18%

Green Fuel at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Green Fuel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff