Green Eagles 1–1 Red Arrows: Result & Stats

Green Eagles

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Red Arrows

3/13/2025

Super League · Round 28Eagles Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Green Eagles38%

×Draw31%

Red Arrows31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Green EaglesExpected goals in this matchRed Arrows

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.92

Green Eagles

1.04

Red Arrows

0.92

Green Eagles creates 13% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

1.18

creates per match

0.99

0.84

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Green Eagles

1.18

Red Arrows

0.99

allows per match

Green Eagles

0.84

Red Arrows

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Green Eagles+0.00on par

Red Arrows+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Eagles ↓

Red Arrows →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Green Eagles or draw

69%

Green Eagles or Red Arrows

69%

Draw or Red Arrows

62%

Winning margin

Green Eagles wins by 2+

15%

Red Arrows wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Green Eagles 1+ goals

65%

Green Eagles 2+ goals

28%

Green Eagles 3+ goals

9%

Red Arrows 1+ goals

60%

Red Arrows 2+ goals

23%

Red Arrows 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Green Eagles (draw refunded)

55%

Red Arrows (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Eagles at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.84 · 111 matches

Red Arrows away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.90 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Eagles attack 1.18 + Red Arrows defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.04

Red Arrows attack 0.99 + Green Eagles defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Green Eagles scores more

38%

level

31%

Red Arrows scores more

31%

Green Eagles at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Green Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff