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Green Eagles vs Nkwazi — Super League 2019

Green Eagles
Green Eagles
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nkwazi
Nkwazi
2/8/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Eagles Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Green Eagles40%
×Draw32%
Nkwazi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Eagles
1.05
Nkwazi
0.83

Green Eagles creates 27% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

creates per match

Green Eagles
1.18
Nkwazi
0.82

allows per match

Green Eagles
0.84
Nkwazi
0.93

finishing

Green Eagles+0.00on par
Nkwazi+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Eagles ↓

Nkwazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Green Eagles or draw
72%
Green Eagles or Nkwazi
68%
Draw or Nkwazi
60%

Winning margin

Green Eagles wins by 2+
16%
Nkwazi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Green Eagles 1+ goals
65%
Green Eagles 2+ goals
28%
Green Eagles 3+ goals
9%
Nkwazi 1+ goals
56%
Nkwazi 2+ goals
20%
Nkwazi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Green Eagles (draw refunded)
59%
Nkwazi (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Eagles at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.84 · 111 matches

Nkwazi away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Eagles attack 1.18 + Nkwazi defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Nkwazi attack 0.82 + Green Eagles defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Green Eagles scores more
40%
level
32%
Nkwazi scores more
28%

Green Eagles at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Green Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Green Eagles vs Nkwazi

Nkwazi beat Green Eagles 1-0 in Super League on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Eagles Ground in Choma.