Green Commandos vs St Joseph FC — Super League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 16+ matches
Green Commandos36%
St Joseph FC38%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 18 home / 16 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Green Commandos ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Green Commandos at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches
St Joseph FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Green Commandos attack 1.39 + St Joseph FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32
St Joseph FC attack 1.06 + Green Commandos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.36
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
St Joseph FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "St Joseph FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Migori Youth
3K
Equity Bank
Mombasa Elite
MOFA
Fortune Sacco
Naivas
Talanta
Kibera Black Stars
Soy United
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
Gucha Stars
Kabati Youth FC
Kisumu All Stars
Darajani Gogo
Nairobi City Stars
Vihiga United FC
MCF
Mwatate UnitedIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Green Commandos host St Joseph FC on Wednesday, 23 May 2018 at 10:00. The match is part of the Super League 2018/2019 season.
Super League: Green Commandos 1–0 St Joseph FC
Green Commandos beat St Joseph FC 1-0 in Super League on May 23, 2018.