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Green Commandos vs Nairobi Stima — Super League 2018

Green Commandos
Green Commandos
FT
2 – 4
Nairobi Stima
Nairobi Stima
7/1/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Green Commandos32%
×Draw24%
Nairobi Stima44%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Commandos
1.38
Nairobi Stima
1.65

Nairobi Stima creates 20% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

creates per match

Green Commandos
1.39
Nairobi Stima
1.64

allows per match

Green Commandos
1.67
Nairobi Stima
1.36

finishing

Green Commandos+0.00on par
Nairobi Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Commandos ↓

Nairobi Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Green Commandos or draw
56%
Green Commandos or Nairobi Stima
76%
Draw or Nairobi Stima
68%

Winning margin

Green Commandos wins by 2+
14%
Nairobi Stima wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Green Commandos 1+ goals
75%
Green Commandos 2+ goals
40%
Green Commandos 3+ goals
16%
Nairobi Stima 1+ goals
81%
Nairobi Stima 2+ goals
49%
Nairobi Stima 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Green Commandos (draw refunded)
42%
Nairobi Stima (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Commandos at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Nairobi Stima away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Commandos attack 1.39 + Nairobi Stima defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Nairobi Stima attack 1.64 + Green Commandos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Green Commandos scores more
32%
level
24%
Nairobi Stima scores more
44%

Nairobi Stima at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nairobi Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Green Commandos vs Nairobi Stima

Nairobi Stima beat Green Commandos 4-2 in Super League on July 1, 2018.