Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Green Commandos vs Modern Coast Rangers — Super League 2018

Green Commandos
Green Commandos
FT
1 – 3
Modern Coast Rangers
Modern Coast Rangers
3/6/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Green Commandos41%
×Draw26%
Modern Coast Rangers34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Commandos
1.44
Modern Coast Rangers
1.28

Green Commandos creates 13% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Green Commandos
1.39
Modern Coast Rangers
0.89

allows per match

Green Commandos
1.67
Modern Coast Rangers
1.50

finishing

Green Commandos+0.00on par
Modern Coast Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Commandos ↓

Modern Coast Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Green Commandos or draw
66%
Green Commandos or Modern Coast Rangers
74%
Draw or Modern Coast Rangers
59%

Winning margin

Green Commandos wins by 2+
19%
Modern Coast Rangers wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Green Commandos 1+ goals
76%
Green Commandos 2+ goals
42%
Green Commandos 3+ goals
18%
Modern Coast Rangers 1+ goals
72%
Modern Coast Rangers 2+ goals
37%
Modern Coast Rangers 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Green Commandos (draw refunded)
55%
Modern Coast Rangers (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Commandos at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Modern Coast Rangers away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Commandos attack 1.39 + Modern Coast Rangers defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Modern Coast Rangers attack 0.89 + Green Commandos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Green Commandos scores more
41%
level
26%
Modern Coast Rangers scores more
34%

Green Commandos at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Green Commandos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Green Commandos 1–3 Modern Coast Rangers

Modern Coast Rangers beat Green Commandos 3-1 in Super League on March 6, 2018.